From a cost benefit point of view, it can be concluded that the PROMOTE project is a sound investment since society as a whole will gain economic benefits amounting to two and a half times the cost of providing the PROMOTE services including the costs of a dedicated atmospheric space mission assumed to become operational in 2009.
Climate change , depletion of the Ozone layer resulting in increased UV radiation at the Earth surface, summer smog over large cities, acid rain, poor air quality - all have serious socio economic consequences in the both the short and long term, for instance:
PROMOTE will deliver operational services and products related to Stratospheric Ozone and Surface Ultraviolet Radiation, and Air Quality. All three of these service lines address past, present, and forecasts of various variables and constituents using information derived from satellite data, ground-based measurements, and models.
PROMOTE services are public good services primarily driven by the Montreal (Ozone/UV) and Kyoto (GG&A) Protocols, the Convention on Long-Range Trans-boundary Air Pollution and the EC Framework Directives on Air Quality. Increased political and public concern for climate change and its consequences and increased health concerns of air pollution are also important when considering current and future demand for PROMOTE services.
Satellite data are a unique source of information to monitor and increase our knowledge of climate change. PROMOTE will ensure long term availability of key satellite data sources to provide for long term consistent data sets for the main atmospheric parameters such as stratospheric ozone, UV radiation, the level of air pollutant emissions and at a later stage Green house Gases and Aerosols. PROMOTE therefore plays an essential role as the European contribution to GEOS. The political and strategic global benefits of PROMOTE are very large as it is important for Europe to play a dominant role in the scientific understanding of global climate change and in the political debate surrounding it. For the individual PROMOTE service lines the main benefits have been identified:
|PROMOTE Service line||PROMOTE added value|
|Ozone||- Ensure long-term consistent global total ozone data sets|
- Only Satellite data can provide global data sets and complements ground ozone measurement stations
- Enhancements of investments into GAV stations (Ozone ground measurement stations)
- Provides input to Weather Forecast models and improves accuracy of 5-10 days weather forecasts
- Provides input to chemical transport model used for meteorological analysis
- Ensure long term time series of surface UV exposure and radiation intensity
- Complements ground measurements
- Improves accuracy of UV forecasting
|Air Quality monitoring||
- Complement ground measurement by adding information for "in
between stations" or in geographic areas where ground stations are
lacking or scarce|
- Provides the global picture and long term air pollution trends
- Satellite data serves the purpose of validating and improve models
|Air Quality Forecasting||
- Improves accuracy of Air quality forecasting|
- Facilitate widespread use of Air quality forecasting services by providing a pan European Air quality service
Ozone and UV services are public goods where the marginal cost of service provision is practically zero. This is not necessarily true in the case of Air Quality services where considerable investment is needed for each city or area of interest. However for dedicated consumer services such as "Your Air" and 'Sun Burn Time' user payment is expected to be the prevailing business model. This will lead to service sustainability within a few years.
By 2009 PROMOTE will generate benefits equivalent to around 150 M a year. Near real time Ozone service has proven useful as input to weather prediction models for middle range forecasting (5-10 days) which is the big challenge for weather prediction since huge socio-economic benefits are at stake. Longer lead time prior to an extreme weather event would allow authorities, industry, farmers and fishermen to prepare for and put into place appropriate measures in order to reduce overall impact of a given disaster. According to the insurance industry weather related disaster will cost in the order of 18B growing to 45B by next decade in Europe alone. The PROMOTE impact has been estimated to be worth an average of 38 M a year by 2010.
Air pollution (ground ozone and fine particles) has huge socio economic costs in terms of both morbidity and mortality. 288.000 premature deaths and some 83000 hospital admission costs the European societies 159 B each year. Strict regulations are already being implemented to reduce air pollution. The PROMOTE air quality monitoring services will provide for better means to monitor air pollution and in particular to optimise likely impact on measures to be implemented to reduce air pollution.
Air quality forecast services are yet not main-stream across Europe, the pioneers being France, Germany and UK. AQ FC services will in particular benefit citizens already suffering from respiratory diseases or heart problems. Restricted activity days (loss of productivity) and chronic bronchitis cost the European society in the order 84 B a year. Experiences with "Your Air" services in the UK suggests that the number of incidents can be reduced if vulnerable people can be warned beforehand if excess values of critical air pollutants are to occur and thereby prevent people to be fully exposed by alter their behaviour. We have identified two distinct types of PROMOTE benefits derived from the AQ FC services. One is the added value of satellite data to enhance accuracy of the forecast. The other is the multiplication effect, that due to PROMOTE more countries or regions will be able to implement an AQ forecast service. In total we have estimated that the PROMOTE AQ forecast service will contribute to the reduction of health costs due to acute incidents valued at around 30M a year. The Air Quality services dominate as potential benefits account for more than 60% of total identified monetary benefits.
Expressed in NPV, the costs amounts to a total of 573 M and the benefits to a total of 1460 M discounted to 2004 values. That results in a cost benefit ration of 1:2.5